The Best Deterrent to War

by Jim Babka
May 18, 2004

Pollster John Zogby, the favorite pollster of Rush Limbaugh, said of George W. Bush, "He is in dangerous territory now."

The Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandals are taking a real toll. And standing by Donald Rumsfeld is hurting the President even worse. There's a real perception out there that the poop is rolling downhill – that indictments of the enlisted personnel that worked at Abu Ghraib are only being issued to scapegoat.

President Bush has staked his reputation on the outcome in Iraq. It has been said that, "Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them." The phrase should be revised,

"Those who fail to learn the right lessons from history are doomed to repeat previous failures."

I'll admit, it doesn't have quite the same ring to it as the original, but it's accurate. Thanks to George W. Bush, we might have a new lesson – the Bush Lesson – that pre-emptive wars bent on regime change are a really bad idea if you want to get re-elected.

Approval ratings

The president is in trouble now because his approval ratings have shrunk dangerously low. They are on an almost identical track with those of Jimmy Carter and the original George Bush at this point in their first term.

The professionals all agree – from Pew, to Gallup, to Zogby – and Democratic pollsters can hardly contain their glee: The approval rating of a sitting president in May of an election year is one of the best predictors of the vote percentage he'll receive in November – regardless of where he's at in the head-to-head polls at that time.

A low approval rating indicates that the American public is very willing to consider the alternative. It still remains for John Kerry to win their support over the next couple of months.

Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

Just a handful of months ago, George W. Bush seemed unstoppable – a shoo-in for re-election. But Bush and his handlers failed to learn the lessons of history.

The saving grace of this situation is that perhaps the Bush Lesson won't be lost on presidents in the immediate future who will decide that attacking a nation that hasn't even threatened you, or trying to affect regime change are too politically dangerous to venture.

The Bush Lesson is a good thing. To coin a new phrase, "Nothing ventured, everything gained," because this war has cost us our own personal liberty, tens of billions of dollars, and more than 700 American lives. But does anyone believe terrorism has been defeated – or will be?

And if a future president tries to sell the same lemon, will the American people buy it? …or will they remember the Bush Lesson.

Which War?

Before this preemptive, unconstitutional war, neo-conservative backers of George W. Bush like Frank Gaffney and James Woolsey kept making a historical comparison.

They asked us to wonder how many lives could've been spared if Neville Chamberlain hadn't been such a coward when dealing with Adolph Hitler. The popular version of that story is that British Prime Minister Chamberlain was so eager for peace with Hitler that he was duped into a phony peace deal, allowing Hitler to grab more land and expand his war machine.

In the great game of "What If?" the Gaffney's and the Woolsey's of the world have wondered, "What if Chamberlain had just declared war on Hitler right on the spot? Could Hitler have been stopped? Would lives have been spared – particularly the lives of millions of Jews and gypsies?"

This, as we'll cover in a moment, was both a bad interpretation of history and an awful application.

These same neo-conservative backers of the president decided that Korean and Vietnam were anomalies. The first Gulf War had proved that we were back! After all, Saddam Hussein had been caged. The people held parades for the homecoming military heroes. Patriotism surged.

Gulf War Hubris

This created hubris. There was only one thing about the new Iraq War that was historically comparable – the name of the enemy.

• George Bush the elder had recruited legitimate worldwide support and alliance for the Gulf War.
• …His son had significant opposition from NATO Allies, not to mention the United Nations.
• George Bush the elder wasn't willing to use US forces to bring about regime change. Why? Because he knew it would destabilize the region.
• …His son cared about nothing else.

The Gulf War success was the wrong historical lesson to apply in this situation.

Stopping Hitler

The lesson of World War II was not applicable here either.

The comparison completely breaks down when you realize that unlike Hitler, Hussein hadn't attacked anyone – not since 1990, when we defanged him. He wasn't even threatening to do so.

Quagmire

"Quagmire" described our ventures in Korea and Vietnam. We withdrew from Korea – called it a draw. Then we withdrew from Vietnam. Everyone recognized that was a loss.

As if the once proud American empire wasn't humiliated enough, young revolutionaries captured US embassy employees in Tehran, Iran and held them for more than 400 days. President Carter couldn't even rescue them – he was forced to negotiate instead.

Vietnam helped destroy the Johnson presidency. Tehran helped destroy the Carter presidency. And the first Gulf War did nothing to save the Bush presidency.

Now gas prices are rising sharply to record levels. Interest rates are starting to climb.

And fresh on the scandal of Iraqi Prisoner abuse, now the President of the American- appointed Iraqi National Council has been assassinated – by a suicide bomber.

All of this spells trouble, with a capital "T" for the Bush re-election campaign. But it's good news for the rest of us because this lesson of history, the Bush Lesson, is unlikely to be missed by future presidents.

They will likely be scared of a potential quagmire and the damage it could do to their political fortunes and legacy. And that could be the best deterrent of all.

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